39% feeling worse off - just days before the Iran war

In the week before the US and Israel launched a war against Iran, nearly four out of every 10 New Zealand adults felt their households' financial position was worse than a year ago.

Asked how they felt about the current coalition government's performance, New Zealanders told Horizon Research they had overwhelmingly more negative than positive feelings. 

39% felt frustrated, while 22% felt hopeful and 5% only felt proud, excited, or inspired.

Since then fuel prices have risen sharply, and there are concerns the war may see inflation rise and economic growth decline.

The Horizon survey, conducted in the public interest as part of the company's programme to make sure New Zealanders are heard, may help explain why other polling is finding the current and alternative coalition government parties are neck and neck. Horizon has tracked the same financial position question results in February for the past three years.

The February 22-28 2026 survey of 1,048 adults nationwide (maximum margin of error +/- 3%), finds:

39% (1,511,000 adults) think their household financial position is worse than a year ago. Similar levels to when this question was last asked in August 2022.

14% (549,000 adults) think it is better than it was a year ago.

44% (1,685,000 adults) said it is about the same, significantly higher than 37% in 2022.

People more likely to say their financial position is much worse/worse than a year ago are:

• 55-64 year olds – 48%

• Females – 45%

• Not employed – 46%.

Those with lower incomes say they are in a worse financial position compared to a year ago.

 

Will life in New Zealand be better or worse in the coming year?

27% (1,036,000 adults) think their lives in New Zealand will be worse in the coming year than the last. Of these 8% (325,000 adults) say it will be much worse.

24% (912,000 adults) think life will be better.

43% (1,666,000 adults) say their life for them will be about the same.

Middle aged feel their lives will be worse

65-74 and 75+ year olds are more likely to believe their life will be the same in the next year compared with the past year.

55-64 year olds are not positive about the coming year, with 30% saying it will be worse.

16% of 45-54 year olds say it will be much worse.

18-24 year olds are more positive with 36% saying it will be much better/better and 30% of 25-34 year olds saying it will be much better/better.

31% of household incomes less than $50,000 say it is likely to get much worse/worse.

Higher income earners think life will get better in the coming year

61% of people with a personal income over $150,000 think their lives will get better/much better in the coming year.

31% of people with an income from $50,000 to $150,000 think their lives will get better/much better in the coming year.

People with personal income less than $50,000 are less likely to think their lives will get better in the coming year.

61% of people with a personal income over $150,000 think their lives will get better/much better in the coming year.

31% of people with an income from $50,000 to $150,000 think their lives will get better/much better in the coming year.

People with personal income less than $50,000 are less likely to think their lives will get better in the coming year.

Life outlook - by party vote

Among those who voted in the 2023 general election, ACT voters are more likely to say that their lives will be better in the next 12 months.

52% of National voters think it will stay the same.

Labour and Green Party voters do not see their lives getting better in the next 12 months and are significantly more likely to say that it will be worse.

Feelings about the coalition government's performance

Respondents were shown a randomised list of words and asked to choose what feelings they had when thinking about how the current coalition government is performing..

• 39% (1,515,000 adults) are disappointed with the coalition government's performance.

• 35% (1,337,000 adults) are frustrated

• 34% (1,310,000 adults) are concerned, a significant drop from 39% in 2025

• 23% (889,000 adults) are angry

• 20% (769,000 adults) say they are hopeful.

The results show little change from February 2025.

 35-44 and 55-64 year olds are more likely to have negative feelings towards  the government.

ACT and National 2023 election voters are more likely  to be pleased and hopeful about the current coalition government.

Voters for the main opposition parties are more negative towards the current government’s performance.

15% of New Zealand First voters are proud (the highest party ranking for this emotion), though 40% say they are disappointed.

People who are very comfortable and have enough money to meet all their needs are more likely  to be positive about the government.

48% of people who are uncomfortable and 53% who are most uncomfortable  are disappointed.

40% who are most uncomfortable are angry.

Those who think the next 12 months will get worse have negative feelings towards the government’s performance.

Research method

An online survey of adults living in New Zealand aged 18 and older.

Sample sources

Members of two nationwide Horizon Research panels and a third-party panel (used for source diversity).

Fieldwork dates

20 to 27 February 2026

Sample size

1,046 adults.

Weighting

The total sample is weighted on age, ethnicity, gender, region, personal income and Party vote 2023 to match the New Zealand adult population.

Maximum predicted margin of error

±3% at the 95% confidence level.

Population estimates in the report

These are based on the Stats NZ Census 2023 population of 3,865,235 people aged 18 or more. All population numbers are to the nearest thousand.

Further details on results are available by emailing manager@horizonresearch.co.nz